The prediction market newsletter.
Predicted covers the business of prediction markets. The data, the deals and the regulation, in one issue a week. Read by operators, investors and policy people across the industry.
Data
Volumes, market share and the numbers behind Polymarket, Kalshi and the challengers.
Deals
Funding rounds, launches and who is building what.
Regulation
The CFTC, the states and the court fights that decide what these markets can be.
Recent issues.
from the archive
22 OCT 2026Is the Fee-Free Era Over for Market Makers?Polymarket and DraftKings rethink their fees, rebates and incentives.
19 OCT 2026Crypto.com and Novig Sue Missouri Over Sports ContractsCrypto.com and Novig sue Missouri over sports contracts, Cboe and Robinhood clear the SEC for KPI event contracts, an LA restaurant group hedges its Dodgers risk on Kalshi. Plus, everything else from the week.
15 OCT 2026Polymarket's IPO ConundrumPolymarket are deciding between an IPO and their own token, with Kalshi raising at $40B and the courts split on sports contracts.Questions.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market is an exchange where people trade contracts on the outcome of a future event. Each contract pays out a fixed amount if the event happens and nothing if it does not, so the trading price reads as the market's probability. Kalshi and Polymarket are the two largest venues.
What is Predicted?
Predicted is a weekly newsletter about the business of prediction markets. Each issue covers the week's data, deals and regulation, and subscribers get the quarterly State of Prediction Markets report.
What does the newsletter cover?
The companies and markets behind event trading. Polymarket, Kalshi and the challengers, the funding rounds and product launches, and the CFTC, state and court decisions that shape what these markets can be.
How often does it come out?
Weekly. The roundup lands on Mondays.
Is it free?
Yes. The weekly newsletter is free, and the quarterly report is free for subscribers.
