The prediction market newsletter.
Predicted covers the business of prediction markets. The data, the deals and the regulation, in one issue a week. Read by operators, investors and policy people across the industry.
Data
Volumes, market share and the numbers behind Polymarket, Kalshi and the challengers.
Deals
Funding rounds, launches and who is building what.
Regulation
The CFTC, the states and the court fights that decide what these markets can be.
Recent issues.
from the archive
07 SEP 2026Polymarket Valuation Hits $21 Billion, Led By Trump Jr.'s 1789 CapitalNews Roundup: Polymarket's valuation hits $21 billion on a Trump Jr.-backed round, New Jersey asks the Supreme Court to settle prediction markets' biggest legal question, and ParlayX raise $1.25 million for institutional order routing.
04 SEP 2026Let's Talk About The WeatherInside the weather books at Kalshi, ForecastEx and Polymarket
31 AUG 2026Did The Ninth Circuit Hand Prediction Markets Their Biggest Loss Yet?News Roundup: The Ninth Circuit hands Kalshi its biggest legal loss yet, Alpaca bring Kalshi contracts to 14 million brokerage accounts, and Kalshi partner with The Weather Company.Questions.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market is an exchange where people trade contracts on the outcome of a future event. Each contract pays out a fixed amount if the event happens and nothing if it does not, so the trading price reads as the market's probability. Kalshi and Polymarket are the two largest venues.
What is Predicted?
Predicted is a weekly newsletter about the business of prediction markets. Each issue covers the week's data, deals and regulation, and subscribers get the quarterly State of Prediction Markets report.
What does the newsletter cover?
The companies and markets behind event trading. Polymarket, Kalshi and the challengers, the funding rounds and product launches, and the CFTC, state and court decisions that shape what these markets can be.
How often does it come out?
Weekly. The roundup lands on Mondays.
Is it free?
Yes. The weekly newsletter is free, and the quarterly report is free for subscribers.
